AI predicts $ Bitcoin after the expiration of US$16 billion options

Description: Deribit's approximately $15.9 billion Bitcoin option and $2.13 billion Ethereum option expires, with BTC quoted at about $84.590. This article considers the biggest pain points, bullish holding positions, ETF inflows and key support pressure levels for reference purposes.

Bitcoin, Deribit, options expiry, ETF inflows and technical analysis

Characteristics: Abstract techno-financial style, blue and gold lines with grids forming the market curve to symbolize changes in liquidity after expiration of options. No real person, exchange trademarks or price figures are included

As early as September 25, 2026, Deribit raised about $15.9 billion.$15.9 billionIn a recent blog post, he wrote: "It's hard to believe that there are so many people in the world who don't know what they want.$15.90 billionThe same caliber. Add about $2.13 billion.)$2.13 billionThe total value of Ethereum (ETH) options for the current cycle is approximately $16.53 billion.$16.53 billionThe price of Bitcoin is about $84,590$84,590In the last 24 hours, it has increased by 1.41%, while trading volume decreased to 0.3%.$34.31 billionAI Predicts believes that after the expiry, BTC enters a cleaner market and holdings of price fixing over the past few weeks are cleared.

One, maturity changes the structure of the market rather than a single direction

Nebraskangooner's public post points out that the recent$16 billionThe nominal expiration value of a bitcoin option is important because large maturities allow market makers to hedge around highly concentrated leverage. This type of hedging keeps the price peg pinned before expiry: traders buy or sell in order to keep their positions neutral, thereby suppressing both ups and downs.

Once the contract is settled, these hedging pressures are relieved and prices are more likely to move in line with real demand. The cooling of trading volume after expiry also corresponds to a common phenomenon where traders temporarily exit the market. For readers, the core of this matter is not that short-term maturity leads to fluctuations but rather that there has been a change in the conditions constraining markets over the short term: when the stability originally created by the option pair weakens and liquidity becomes thin, volatility may be amplified.

The biggest pain point is below the current price, indicating that sellers are more defensive.

This time, the biggest pain point was in my stomach.$75,000To and from$78,000❚cryptounfolded The data given is as of Friday, September 25 at 8:00 UTC, 184K $BTC expires in Deribit, nominal value.$15.90 billionThe biggest pain point.$75,000The overall put-to-call ratio was between 0.69 and 0.84, with more calls than puts, indicating that traders were biased towards the bulls prior to this date.

The biggest pain point is the price zone where the largest number of contracts go to zero, and it's also where option sellers typically retain the most money.$75,000I'll be back in a few days.$87,000Above, so that all around$76,000The near-silent expiry of the position is assumed to fall within a deep price.

This set of information is noteworthy: bearish holding positions plus max pain well below the spot price usually mean that sellers are more defensive than proactive in pushing prices toward a sore point. In other words, options markets do not exert pressure on the spot prices.

ETF funding and option structure provides a follow-up window

Coinglass data shows a net inflow of US bitcoin cash ETFs on September 24.$190.7 millionBlackRock's contribution to the IBIT$162.6 millionThe day before.$346.9 millionOn 22 September, he was arrested and charged with murder.$714.7 millionThese funds have a combined net asset value of about US$1 billion. . . .$111.28 billionSince its issuance, it has accumulated$57.87 billionWhat is it?

Options markets are also showing longer-term structural signals.$50 billionAbout one-third of those were cleared in the current cycle; traders established targeting.$95,000Butterfly structure by October 30. AI Predicts argues that this type of position leaves room for higher BTC and is still weeks away from expiry.

Four, Technical: $82,300 in support, $88,000 to $90,000 of pressure and $73,836 in withdrawal

The AI Predicts chart shows that Bitcoin is still in the midst of a downturn.$82,303Above, the price formed resistance in both May and September; 50-day EMA$76,476The 200-day EMA.$73,970Previously blocked$82,303It's not that I don't want to write, it's just that I have no idea how to do this.$82,300◦ If the market closes today, the technical structure will remain intact.

The next group that we need to look at is the interval.$88,000To and from$90,000AI Predicts describes it as the closest supply zone and gateway.$95,000A gateway to the target area.$98,330It's not like I don't know what to do.$100,000The last resistance before, and understood in the context of the end-of-year.$73,836With the 200-day EMA forming a withdrawal defense line, this area has been defended in every retreat since August.

The risk also comes from the expiry itself: hedge unwinding not only removes upside suppression, but may also remove downside support. Market makers who originally bought cash at a fall in order to maintain their hedges no longer have to do so; thin liquidity after expiration could amplify bidirectional fluctuations.

The implication for readers is that the first few days of closing can be observed as a follow-up.$82,300And the ETF inflows continue.$88,000To and from$90,000If we don't, it will be the next fight.$73,836This article is based on Coinspeaker reports, Nebraska Kangooner and cryptounfolded public posts, Coinglass data and AI Predicts viewpoints; promotional headlines such as Coinbase Listings in the original text, BloFin AI Trading Bots are not treated as market facts.