Bitcoin ETF One-day withdrawals of nearly $1 billion Average return to profitability

What happened?

According to data from SoSoValue, US cash bitcoin ETFs recorded a one-day net inflow of $998.95 million on Monday, the largest day since October 2025. It is worth noting that just over a week ago, these funds had set the record for the smallest single weekly net inflows in their 141-week trading history with only $6.2 million as of September 18.

Blade's IBIT contributed $381.37 million, the largest single product inflow on that day. & 21Shares' ARKB flowed in at $289.12 million, and Fidelity's FBTC flowed out at $238.84 million for a combined total of about $52.8 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT flooded in with $61.67 million, while Bitwise's BITB was funded by $21.56 million. The two grayscale funds each recorded multi-million dollar inflows, whereas VanEck's HODL and Valkyrie's BRRR had no outflows on the same day.

Bloomberg industry research analyst Eric Balchunas noted that Monday was the largest single-day influx since October of last year.

Average position holder returns to profitability

The rally also crossed a key threshold. Balchunas's colleague and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said that the price of bitcoin surpassed its estimated ETF holding cost line of $81,722, returning average holders of US cash-backed Bitcoin funds to profitability for the first time since January, when it was trading at around $85,900, about 5% above this cost line.

David Wachsman, president of Hawkeye Digital believes this change is more significant than the original inflow. He explains that holders who are in a loss tend to choose to sell out as soon as they get back to the buffer point, so buying demand has had to continue digesting this partial unwinding since this year. The answer should become clearer now that average buyers have finally corrected themselves and whether institutions really want to increase their bitcoin portfolios or just ride on a roller coaster with rebounds.

Lack of data on turnover

The ETFs traded for about $4.5 billion that day, which Seyfart said was not particularly high relative to the volatility in bitcoin prices and slightly below Friday's $4.6 billion. Balchunas said this figure is still relatively high compared with equity ETF and gold ETF, with IBIT trading at or near the top 10 of the overall market.

He also reminds that the inflows recorded on a single day are largely reflective of orders from the previous trading day. In other words, Monday's total may reflect Friday's purchases and market responses to what happened on Monday might not really be reflected in the data yet.

Accumulating scale and industry insights

Since its inception, the Bitcoin Cash ETF has accumulated net inflows of $56.16 billion and total holdings of $110.14 billion, accounting for about 6.30% of bitcoin's market capitalization.

Bybit India Country Manager Vikas Gupta commented that the recent rally in bitcoin to $86,000-$87,000 was supported by multiple factors such as a warming of institutional demand, strong inflows of cash ETFs and regulatory developments in the US. He also noted that the market remained resilient against the backdrop of Fed rate hikes and frustration with the Clarity Act, indicating that market sentiment is no longer limited to monetary policy itself.