Bitcoin’s Bull Market Has Returned, and the Data Backs It.

Bitcoin Reclaims Its 365-Day Moving Average as Price Rises to Nearly $87,330 After an August Rally and a CryptoQuant Bull Market Signal

Bitcoin has crossed above its 365-day moving average, a technical marker that data firm CryptoQuant says signals the end of a bear market and the start of a bull run. The crossover came as Bitcoin’s price rose to $86,598 recently after trading as high as nearly $87,330 on Monday, a move that revived a rally that first surged in August.

The signal behind the weekend rally

CryptoQuant’s report describes the 365-day moving average as more than a short-term price line. It says the crossover is “the definitive technical signal that has marked the start of Bitcoin’s bull markets in past cycles,” and notes that this is the first time price has reclaimed the moving average since March 2023.

The firm called the line “cycle-defining” and said it has confirmed the start of bull runs in previous years. “Its track record across cycles is why this reclaim carries real weight rather than being a routine bounce,” the report added. That framing helps explain why the weekend move drew attention: the price action matched a signal that has previously accompanied broader bull-market starts.

August surge and Treasury buyback news

The current run did not begin last week. Bitcoin’s price surged in August and had its best run in years after an announcement from the U.S. Treasury saying it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations. That headline helped push the market higher, though the rally later cooled.

The rebound came last week. Bitcoin shot up again and was recently trading for $86,598 after trading as high as nearly $87,330 on Monday. Bitcoin Magazine highlighted the $87,000 level in a post dated September 21, 2026, underscoring how quickly the market moved back toward that milestone.

From record high to liquidation and AI stock rotation

Bitcoin’s path to this moment included a sharp reversal. The cryptocurrency notched a record of $126,080 in October of last year, but it began to sink later that month after the biggest liquidation event in crypto history saw over $19 billion in bets closed.

The decline continued in the first half of this year. The Federal Reserve made it clear it was in no hurry to lower interest rates, while investors increasingly threw money at artificial intelligence-related stocks to get returns. That combination reduced the appeal of a risk asset that had already lost momentum.

Debasement trade and debt worries

The macro story has changed again. The so-called debasement trade — where investors throw money at an asset to hedge against a currency losing its value — is hot again. Bitcoin and precious metals like gold have done well when the dollar has weakened.

That backdrop became more prominent last week, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to get sky-high inflation in the U.S. under control. Investors shrugged the central bank’s move off and bought up the asset. The reported market reaction shows that the concern is not only about short-term rate policy, but also about the broader value of the dollar and the scale of government debt.

By August, total U.S. debt topped $40 trillion for the first time. That milestone helps explain why people seem more interested in buying an asset that can protect them from government debt and deficit. In that setting, Bitcoin’s reclaim of the 365-day moving average is not just a chart event; it arrives alongside renewed demand for assets used as hedges against currency debasement.

Long-term holders and new investors

CryptoQuant also pointed to a change in holder behavior. The report said long-term holders appear to have finished selling, making the way for new investors to enter the market. That shift matters because a bull market signal can be more meaningful when it is supported by supply leaving the hands of older holders and demand entering from newer participants.

For now, the data agrees with the weekend price action: Bitcoin has reclaimed a moving average it had not been above since March 2023, the August rally has found a second wind, and the macro backdrop includes a weakened dollar trade, a record U.S. debt milestone, and a market that moved through a $19 billion liquidation event before turning higher again. Whether the reclaim will remain durable will depend on whether the technical signal, holder behavior and macro backdrop stay aligned.

This post first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.