Bitcoin Drops Below $84,000 as 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches a 19-Year High

Bitcoin Slips Below $84,000 as US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007

Bitcoin fell below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, slipping to $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007. The decline tied a crypto pullback to a bond selloff, stronger US business data, rising oil prices and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten again in October.

Bond yields test risk appetite

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% on Tuesday, and touched 5.13% during the session, with TradingView data showing the yield climbing above 5.1% to its highest level since 2007. CME attributed part of the bond selloff to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.

Higher yields can make government debt more attractive by offering investors a better return, while also raising borrowing costs across the broader economy. That combination can weigh on Bitcoin and other risk assets, especially when dollar strength increases the cost of carrying leveraged crypto exposure.

James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com, wrote Wednesday that BTC had held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD. He identified $82,833 as the next level to watch if the pullback deepens.

Treasury buyback and rate odds shape the next catalyst

The US Treasury announced Wednesday a $6 billion ceiling for its Thursday buyback of bonds with roughly 20 to 30 years remaining, part of an expanded program intended to improve liquidity in long-dated debt. The operation arrives as markets reprice the outlook for US interest rates.

Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices had increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. In a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph on Thursday, Kooijman said markets now assigned around a 70% probability to a hike in October, up from roughly 55% yesterday, while expectations of additional tightening over the coming months had also increased. He said that repricing continued to underpin both Treasury yields and the dollar.

Less than five weeks out from the Oct. 28 meeting of US policymakers, CME Group's Fedwatch tool showed a 75.3% probability of a hike to 4.00-4.25%. An October hike would raise short-term borrowing costs and could increase the cost of dollar-funded leveraged Bitcoin trades. Bitcoin could feel pressure before any decision if new data pushes yields and the dollar higher.

Stanley said resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and support the dollar, while softer figures could prompt traders to scale back expectations of an October move and limit the currency's gains.

ETF flows, seasonality and institutional coverage frame the risk

Bitcoin ETFs added $347 million as BTC fell below $84,000 after topping $87,000. Related coverage also pointed to institutional behavior during severe drawdowns, with Bitwise finding that institutions held crypto through a 50% drawdown. Other market commentary discussed winners and losers of the SEC's new tokenized stocks rules, another sign that regulatory and institutional themes remain in the background of crypto market analysis.

Seasonal patterns offer another reference point. Traders call the months Red September and Uptober because of their opposing track records. Bitcoin fell in five straight Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years, according to data compiled by CoinGlass. CoinGlass data also showed September has the lowest average return of any month, at -2.34%.

However, Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022. It gained in September 2023, 2024 and 2025, and is up 7.35% so far this month. October has averaged a 19.92% increase, second only to November, but the pattern failed last year, when Bitcoin fell 3.69%.

The immediate signal is that Bitcoin's short-term path is now closely linked to US bond yields, dollar strength and the probability that the Federal Reserve tightens again before the end of October. The next catalysts are new US economic data, the long-dated Treasury buyback and any shift in rate expectations that moves the 10-year yield and the dollar further.