Analysis says the Bitcoin bull market is confirmed, but $90,000 poses a profit-taking risk.

Bitcoin Faces a $90,000 Profit-Taking Test as CryptoQuant Sees the Bull Market Intact

CryptoQuant said in a weekly report issued on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s next meaningful test is likely to occur around $90,000, where profit-taking can slow the advance after BTC has returned to unrealized profit. The on-chain analytics firm described the current bull phase as confirmed, with spot price at $86,000 and technical, valuation and on-chain data pointing higher, but it flagged a narrow supply zone that may create friction before the market can extend.

Why $90,000 Is the Next Friction Zone

The report centers on the behavior of traders whose coins last moved on-chain between one and three months ago. Their realized price, or average acquisition cost, sits at $64,300. CryptoQuant places profit and loss bands around that cost, with the upper band for profit-taking at $90,300, equal to 40% above the realized price.

That upper band overlaps an on-chain supply cluster between $88,000 and $90,000, which the firm calls the next resistance to clear. When price approaches that level, margins for recent buyers stretch, and selling can become more intense. CryptoQuant characterized the possible slowdown as a natural pause inside an uptrend rather than evidence of a reversal. The path from the current $86,000 spot price to the profit-taking area is described as largely clear, and the firm sees no return to bear-market conditions.

On-Chain Signals That Support the Bull Case

Analysts have pointed to a reclaim of the 365-day moving average at $80,500 as part of the signal set behind the call for a new bull market. The weekly report says technicals, valuation and on-chain data now align upward, echoing an earlier view from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

A related signal comes from the market value to realized value ratio, which measures aggregate profitability across Bitcoin’s supply. The ratio has crossed above its 365-day moving average, an event that previously marked the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Cointelegraph reported that the price metric printed its fourth-ever bullish cross.

Ki also noted that the ratio did not fall below its breakeven point of 1 at any point during the 2026 bear market. That means the wider investor base remained profitable in aggregate throughout the drawdown, a contrast with earlier macro downturns.

ETF Flows and a Possible Shift in Cycle Shape

New capital inflows have remained notably high this month, and the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, offer a visible channel for that demand. Data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors showed net inflows of $1.7 billion during the first two days of the week. Monday alone recorded $999 million, the largest single-day total since October 2025.

Ki said this week on X that future Bitcoin price cycles may become less extreme than earlier ones because ownership has shifted away from retail traders and toward institutions. In his view, a much larger market and growing institutional participation dampen both extremes: they can limit upside while also softening downside moves. That makes the tops and bottoms of future cycles shallower than in earlier eras.

What Readers Should Watch

For readers, the key point is that $90,000 is not presented as a prediction of a top, but as a pressure zone where profit-taking odds rise. The more useful signals are whether BTC can move through the $88,000 to $90,000 supply cluster without the realized-price bands widening, whether ETF net inflows continue to provide a visible demand channel, and whether profitability metrics such as the market value to realized value ratio remain above their long-term moving averages. CryptoQuant’s framework suggests the bull market can survive a pause, but the next move will depend on how buyers respond when recent holders are offered a clear opportunity to sell.